Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility Shows a Mid‑Term Spike Ahead of U.S. Elections
Options markets indicate a short‑lived bump in Bitcoin volatility around the November 4 election, while futures open interest stays flat.
Volatility term structure points to a temporary surge
Bitcoin’s implied volatility (IV) term structure is showing a noticeable bulge for contracts that expire on Nov. 4, the day after the U.S. mid‑term elections. The IV for that expiry sits at about 43.5%, compared with roughly 36% for later dates. This upward spike signals that options traders expect larger price swings as early election results and news reports roll in, but they do not anticipate a prolonged period of turbulence.
Futures open interest remains unchanged
In contrast, the futures market shows little movement. Open interest has held steady at approximately $58 billion for Bitcoin futures and $23.58 billion for Ether futures over the past 24 hours. The combination of flat open interest, a recent funding flip, and a five‑point skew—meaning puts are priced higher than calls—suggests traders are primarily seeking hedges for positions they already hold.
Data‑tracking platform Laevitas explains that “flat open interest alongside a funding flip and a five‑point skew move describes hedging demand layered onto existing risk, and that kind of demand historically decays hard once the event it was bought for clears.” The firm expects the volatility bulge to flatten after the election.
Market resilience amid external shock
Bitcoin and Ether have recovered from the lows hit on Friday when a hack at Binance triggered panic. Bitcoin is now trading near $78,000 and Ether around $2,290, holding above the levels seen during the incident. Alex Thorn, research head at Galaxy, noted on X that “Bitcoin closes above 50‑week moving average for 7th straight week despite $6b+ hack on world’s biggest crypto exchange. great to see BTC’s resilience and ability to keep the current technical market structure intact.”
Seasonal and broader market context
Historical data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin’s median gain in November since 2013 is about 8.8%, excluding the 2013 outlier. Both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin have tended to post gains after mid‑term elections, adding a bullish seasonal tilt to the outlook.
However, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of roughly $643 million on Friday—the largest since June—according to SoSoValue, indicating some caution among investors.
Traders appear to be buying insurance for a brief election‑driven storm, but the broader market remains surprisingly steady.
