Israel’s Pivotal Election: Netanyahu Faces Tight Race Against Former IDF Chief

Israel’s upcoming election could reshape the nation’s political landscape amid ongoing regional conflicts.

Election Context and Key Contenders

Israel will vote on Tuesday in what many describe as one of the most pivotal elections in its history. It is the first national ballot since the Hamas‑led attacks of 7 October 2023 and the subsequent wars involving Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

Polling released on Friday places incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a close contest with Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israel Defense Forces. Eisenkot, who founded the Yashar Party only last year, draws support from his military background and his status as a relative newcomer to politics.

Eisenkot’s personal loss—his son, a soldier, died early in the Gaza war—combined with his resignation from Netanyahu’s war cabinet in 2024 over the handling of the conflict, has shaped his campaign’s focus on accountability for the security failures that led to the October 7 attacks.

Other Opposition Figures

Additional opposition leaders include former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both described as right‑wingers with hardline security positions, and Yair Golan, a left‑leaning former general. While they differ on many issues, they could potentially align with Eisenkot to challenge Netanyahu’s hold on power.

Netanyahu’s Position and Coalition Dynamics

Netanyahu’s current government is characterized as the most right‑wing in Israel’s history. To retain power, he is expected to depend on far‑right coalition partners who advocate ultra‑nationalist policies, such as annexing the West Bank and promoting the “migration” of Palestinians from Gaza—a stance that could involve forced displacement. Some members of Netanyahu’s Likud party have also voiced similar calls for Palestinian “migration.”

Arab Parties and Potential Kingmaker Role

Two Arab party blocs are also contesting the election, representing roughly one‑fifth of Israel’s population, many of whom identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel. Although most leading Jewish parties have ruled out cooperation with Arab parties, the fragmented nature of the vote could give these blocs decisive influence in coalition talks.

Electoral System and Possible Outcomes

The Knesset comprises 120 seats, requiring 61 for a governing majority. Israel’s proportional representation system typically produces coalition governments. Friday’s poll data suggest that neither Eisenkot’s nor Netanyahu’s blocs are likely to achieve a majority on their own, indicating a period of extended political negotiations.

If no coalition reaches the required threshold, a minority government might be formed, or new elections could be called, with Netanyahu remaining as interim prime minister until a new vote.

Security as the Dominant Theme

The election campaign is dominated by security concerns. Challengers criticize the failures that allowed the October 7 attacks, which resulted in nearly 1,200 deaths and 251 hostages taken to Gaza. Netanyahu continues to brand himself as “Mr Security,” highlighting strategic victories in Israel’s wars since 2023.

The coming weeks will reveal whether Israel’s electorate opts for continuity under Netanyahu or a shift toward Eisenkot’s call for accountability.